Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +2 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | ACU -4.6 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -5.7 (+3.7) | 152.8 (+19.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -3.8 (+1.8) | 150.2 (+21.8) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -4.2 (+2.2) | 151.0 (+21.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -4.4 (+2.4) | 153.4 (+18.6) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2024 | ACU 87 – 79 RGV |
| Jan 6, 2024 | ACU 91 – 89 RGV |
| Jan 12, 2023 | RGV 103 – 86 ACU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | ACU 83 – 66 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 11-7 |
| Home | 4-9 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#268) | 2.2 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#289) | 0.21 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#281) | 0.29 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#226) | 0.519 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 28.2% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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