Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | RGV +140 ACU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +8 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | ACU -1.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -1.3 (-6.7) | 147.5 (+18.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -0.6 (-7.4) | 145.5 (+20.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -0.3 (-7.7) | 145.4 (+20.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -0.5 (-7.5) | 148.0 (+18.0) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 6, 2024 | ACU 91 – 89 RGV |
| Jan 12, 2023 | RGV 103 – 86 ACU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | ACU 83 – 66 RGV |
| Jan 27, 2022 | ACU 87 – 85 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L14 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#319) | -5.4 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#321) | -0.94 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#333) | -0.91 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#332) | 0.438 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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