Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Western Athletic Conference · UTRGV Fieldhouse · February 16, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ACU -2.5 Away covered
O/U 151.5 Over
Money RGV +140 / ACU -138
Model Predictions
Spread Total RGV win
Actual ACU +8 166 Lost
Massey ACU -1.0 (-7.0)
Massey Totals 152.9 (+13.1)
Bradley-Terry 46%
Weighted B-T 31%
Efficiency Plus ML ACU -1.3 (-6.7) 147.5 (+18.5) 44%
Baseline Tuned ML ACU -0.6 (-7.4) 145.5 (+20.5) 49%
Baseline ML ACU -0.3 (-7.7) 145.4 (+20.6) 48%
Baseline Plus ML ACU -0.5 (-7.5) 148.0 (+18.0) 41%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 6, 2024 ACU 9189 RGV
Jan 12, 2023 RGV 10386 ACU
Feb 5, 2022 ACU 8366 RGV
Jan 27, 2022 ACU 8785 RGV

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings RGV ACU
Overall 6-25 16-18
Conference 2-18 10-10
Home 5-9 8-6
Away 1-13 5-10
Neutral 0-3 3-2
Last 5 0-5 1-4
Streak L14 L1
Avg Pts For 68.2 70.7
Avg Pts Against 80.7 73.7
Massey -9.8 (#319) -5.4 (#269)
Bradley-Terry -1.72 (#321) -0.94 (#269)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.42 (#333) -0.91 (#249)
RPI 0.402 (#332) 0.438 (#294)
Shooting & Four Factors RGV ACU
FG% 41.1% 41.0%
3PT% 29.1% 32.8%
REB / G 33.5 32.7
OREB / G 10.0 9.7
AST / TO 0.77 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.4% 45.4%
TOV% 19.7% 17.5%
ORB% 26.3% 25.2%
FT Rate 32.4% 28.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.5% 52.1%
Opp TOV% 19.6% 21.3%
DRB% 65.0% 68.4%
Opp FT Rate 28.2% 29.7%

Game Analysis

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