Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | INST -163 SIU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -6.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -4.5 (-12.5) | 135.4 (-5.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -3.7 (-11.7) | 136.8 (-6.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -6.1 (-14.1) | 134.5 (-4.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -5.4 (-13.4) | 136.5 (-6.5) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | SIU 66 – 55 INST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SIU 80 – 65 INST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SIU 86 – 85 INST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | INST 95 – 77 SIU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SIU 74 – 69 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 61.7 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#89) | 3.3 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#104) | 0.92 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#110) | 0.67 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#121) | 0.546 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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