Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -138 WOF +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +25 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -6.3 (+18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -4.6 (+20.4) | 140.6 (+0.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -4.3 (+20.7) | 140.5 (+0.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -4.0 (+21.0) | 142.0 (-1.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -4.0 (+21.0) | 141.8 (-0.8) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SAM 97 – 80 WOF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | WOF 88 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SAM 76 – 68 WOF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SAM 77 – 61 WOF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | WOF 91 – 69 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#153) | -1.2 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#198) | -0.34 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#180) | -0.58 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#227) | 0.465 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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