Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -278 WOF +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +17 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -1.9 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -1.1 (+15.9) | 147.7 (+29.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -1.3 (+15.7) | 147.1 (+29.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -1.3 (+15.7) | 145.5 (+31.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -1.2 (+15.8) | 146.6 (+30.4) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | WOF 88 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SAM 76 – 68 WOF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SAM 77 – 61 WOF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | WOF 91 – 69 SAM |
| Feb 1, 2024 | SAM 81 – 79 WOF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 78.6 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#231) | -3.2 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#236) | -0.04 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#235) | -0.47 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#229) | 0.505 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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