Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -800 WOF +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +2 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -13.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -12.1 (-10.1) | 161.2 (-1.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -10.8 (-8.8) | 156.6 (+3.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -11.7 (-9.7) | 160.2 (-0.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -13.1 (-11.1) | 159.5 (+0.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SAM 97 – 80 WOF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | WOF 88 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SAM 76 – 68 WOF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SAM 77 – 61 WOF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | WOF 91 – 69 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 18-0 | 11-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#85) | -2.9 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#43) | 0.08 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#65) | -0.25 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#53) | 0.503 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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