Betting Lines
| Spread | WOF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | WOF -166 SAM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WOF +10 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | WOF -5.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WOF -5.5 (+4.5) | 150.5 (+15.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WOF -5.0 (+5.0) | 148.0 (+18.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WOF -4.6 (+5.4) | 148.3 (+17.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WOF -5.1 (+4.9) | 149.6 (+16.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SAM 97 – 80 WOF |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SAM 76 – 68 WOF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SAM 77 – 61 WOF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | WOF 91 – 69 SAM |
| Feb 1, 2024 | SAM 81 – 79 WOF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WOF | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#236) | -6.1 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#182) | -1.13 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#210) | -1.46 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#192) | 0.447 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WOF | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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