Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | WOF +230 SAM -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WOF +22 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -7.2 (+29.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -5.6 (+27.6) | 159.0 (+1.0) | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -4.8 (+26.8) | 157.1 (+2.9) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -6.2 (+28.2) | 157.8 (+2.2) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -6.6 (+28.6) | 157.8 (+2.2) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SAM 97 – 80 WOF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | WOF 88 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SAM 76 – 68 WOF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SAM 77 – 61 WOF |
| Feb 1, 2024 | SAM 81 – 79 WOF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WOF | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-2 | 18-0 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 84.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#203) | 8.2 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#159) | 2.06 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#176) | 2.20 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#162) | 0.593 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WOF | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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