Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | WOF +100 SAM -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +8 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -0.8 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WOF -0.2 (-8.2) | 145.6 (-1.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -0.6 (-7.4) | 148.1 (-4.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WOF -0.5 (-8.5) | 146.9 (-2.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -0.4 (-7.6) | 147.4 (-3.4) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SAM 97 – 80 WOF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | WOF 88 – 78 SAM |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SAM 77 – 61 WOF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | WOF 91 – 69 SAM |
| Feb 1, 2024 | SAM 81 – 79 WOF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WOF | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#163) | 4.0 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#167) | 0.78 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#155) | 0.72 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#128) | 0.544 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WOF | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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