Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -240 WOF +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +16 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -5.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -4.8 (+11.2) | 146.0 (-8.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -6.6 (+9.4) | 146.6 (-8.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -4.7 (+11.3) | 146.8 (-8.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -5.3 (+10.7) | 147.4 (-9.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SAM 97 – 80 WOF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | WOF 88 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SAM 76 – 68 WOF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | WOF 91 – 69 SAM |
| Feb 1, 2024 | SAM 81 – 79 WOF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 9-7 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#102) | 1.5 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#76) | 0.22 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#88) | 0.59 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#90) | 0.529 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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