Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +6 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -2.3 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -0.4 (+5.6) | 155.2 (+2.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -0.9 (+6.9) | 150.3 (+7.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -0.6 (+6.6) | 153.3 (+4.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -0.5 (+6.5) | 153.3 (+4.7) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MARQ 68 – 62 CONN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 6, 2025 | CONN 72 – 66 MARQ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | CONN 77 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 16, 2024 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 31-8 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#17) | 19.8 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#31) | 3.63 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#25) | 4.60 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#48) | 0.644 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 42.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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