Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Conference USA · Ocean Bank Convocation Center · January 12, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread FAU -10.5 Home covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money FIU +450 / FAU -500
Model Predictions
Spread Total FIU win
Actual FAU +4 150 Lost
Massey FAU -13.1 (+9.1)
Massey Totals 145.7 (+4.3)
Bradley-Terry 7%
Weighted B-T 3%
Baseline Plus ML FAU -11.3 (+7.3) 143.5 (+6.5) 18%
Baseline ML FAU -11.1 (+7.1) 143.4 (+6.6) 17%
Baseline Tuned ML FAU -11.7 (+7.7) 143.6 (+6.4) 15%
Efficiency Plus ML FAU -11.1 (+7.1) 142.8 (+7.2) 18%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 4, 2024 FAU 8877 FIU
Dec 14, 2023 FAU 9460 FIU
Dec 17, 2022 FAU 7953 FIU
Mar 5, 2022 FAU 8476 FIU
Mar 4, 2022 FAU 7151 FIU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FIU FAU
Overall 14-18 35-4
Conference 8-12 18-2
Home 11-7 17-0
Away 3-10 11-3
Neutral 0-1 7-1
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.5 77.2
Avg Pts Against 75.5 65.6
Massey -4.7 (#251) 12.5 (#24)
Bradley-Terry -0.31 (#203) 2.93 (#11)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.95 (#242) 3.24 (#18)
RPI 0.484 (#205) 0.641 (#10)
Shooting & Four Factors FIU FAU
FG% 47.1% 47.3%
3PT% 30.1% 38.0%
REB / G 32.5 38.5
OREB / G 8.6 10.5
AST / TO 0.77 1.37
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.5% 55.4%
TOV% 22.2% 16.3%
ORB% 25.5% 30.4%
FT Rate 18.5% 17.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.7% 45.6%
Opp TOV% 23.1% 18.1%
DRB% 67.4% 75.4%
Opp FT Rate 20.3% 18.2%

Game Analysis

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