Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW +138 COFC -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +2 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -0.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -1.6 (-3.6) | 143.6 (-3.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -0.1 (-1.9) | 141.8 (-1.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -1.1 (-3.1) | 144.3 (-4.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -2.3 (-4.3) | 145.2 (-5.2) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | COFC 79 – 76 UNCW |
| Feb 10, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 64 COFC |
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 68 – 67 COFC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNCW 86 – 66 COFC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 83 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-3 | 17-1 |
| Away | 8-6 | 11-2 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#109) | 7.3 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#26) | 2.97 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#40) | 3.23 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#59) | 0.628 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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