Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | TAR -450 CHST +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +10 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -10.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -9.0 (+1.0) | 136.7 (-0.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -9.6 (+0.4) | 134.8 (+1.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -8.7 (+1.3) | 139.4 (-3.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -9.3 (+0.7) | 137.5 (-1.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2022 | TAR 79 – 60 CHST |
| Feb 6, 2022 | TAR 57 – 54 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 0-0 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-0 |
| Away | 2-12 | 3-20 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#167) | -6.4 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#173) | -1.78 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#166) | -1.98 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#158) | 0.410 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.9% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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