Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | CHST +230 TAR -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +19 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -8.3 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -7.7 (-11.3) | 132.3 (+6.7) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -6.7 (-12.3) | 132.3 (+6.7) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -7.2 (-11.8) | 132.7 (+6.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -7.3 (-11.7) | 133.7 (+5.3) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 12, 2023 | TAR 73 – 63 CHST |
| Feb 6, 2022 | TAR 57 – 54 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHST | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-9 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-15 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.1 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#342) | -1.8 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#332) | -0.51 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#337) | -0.30 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#340) | 0.482 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHST | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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