Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | JOES +140 DUQ -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +12 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | DUQ -2.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -3.3 (-8.7) | 144.0 (+28.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -2.4 (-9.6) | 143.8 (+28.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -3.2 (-8.8) | 143.3 (+28.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -3.3 (-8.7) | 144.0 (+28.0) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | JOES 97 – 90 DUQ |
| Jan 30, 2025 | JOES 76 – 72 DUQ |
| Jan 9, 2025 | DUQ 85 – 81 JOES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DUQ 66 – 56 JOES |
| Jan 20, 2024 | JOES 71 – 69 DUQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 16-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#240) | 2.7 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#288) | 0.81 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#287) | 0.82 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#255) | 0.546 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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