Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -300 DUQ +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +2 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -7.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -6.9 (-4.9) | 142.9 (-2.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -4.8 (-2.8) | 144.4 (-4.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -6.9 (-4.9) | 141.2 (-1.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -6.5 (-4.5) | 141.7 (-1.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | JOES 97 – 90 DUQ |
| Jan 30, 2025 | JOES 76 – 72 DUQ |
| Jan 9, 2025 | DUQ 85 – 81 JOES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DUQ 66 – 56 JOES |
| Feb 16, 2023 | DUQ 76 – 62 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#71) | 4.6 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#127) | 0.94 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#104) | 1.21 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#132) | 0.572 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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