Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ -275 JOES +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +14 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -8.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -6.6 (+7.4) | 146.6 (-8.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -6.1 (+7.9) | 146.9 (-8.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -6.9 (+7.1) | 144.9 (-6.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -7.6 (+6.4) | 145.6 (-7.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | JOES 97 – 90 DUQ |
| Jan 30, 2025 | JOES 76 – 72 DUQ |
| Jan 9, 2025 | DUQ 85 – 81 JOES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DUQ 66 – 56 JOES |
| Jan 20, 2024 | JOES 71 – 69 DUQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#114) | -0.8 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#105) | -0.23 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#111) | -0.32 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#91) | 0.496 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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