Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | JOES +114 DUQ -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +7 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -4.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (+27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -2.7 (+9.7) | 149.9 (+37.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -1.5 (+8.5) | 149.2 (+37.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -3.0 (+10.0) | 146.8 (+40.2) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -3.1 (+10.1) | 147.8 (+39.2) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2025 | JOES 76 – 72 DUQ |
| Jan 9, 2025 | DUQ 85 – 81 JOES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DUQ 66 – 56 JOES |
| Jan 20, 2024 | JOES 71 – 69 DUQ |
| Feb 16, 2023 | DUQ 76 – 62 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 75.9 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#253) | 1.8 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#245) | 0.05 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#270) | 0.07 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#251) | 0.504 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.4% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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