Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ +130 JOES -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +4 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -0.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (+33.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -0.5 (+3.5) | 131.2 (+34.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -0.8 (+4.8) | 131.1 (+34.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -0.7 (+4.7) | 133.9 (+32.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -1.2 (+5.2) | 132.8 (+33.2) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | JOES 97 – 90 DUQ |
| Jan 30, 2025 | JOES 76 – 72 DUQ |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DUQ 66 – 56 JOES |
| Jan 20, 2024 | JOES 71 – 69 DUQ |
| Feb 16, 2023 | DUQ 76 – 62 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#176) | 4.1 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#240) | 0.52 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#198) | 0.37 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#231) | 0.525 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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