Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -470 DUQ +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -9.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -7.9 (-3.9) | 140.4 (+7.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -6.9 (-2.9) | 142.2 (+5.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -8.1 (-4.1) | 140.4 (+7.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -8.3 (-4.3) | 140.6 (+7.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | JOES 97 – 90 DUQ |
| Jan 9, 2025 | DUQ 85 – 81 JOES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DUQ 66 – 56 JOES |
| Jan 20, 2024 | JOES 71 – 69 DUQ |
| Feb 16, 2023 | DUQ 76 – 62 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-5 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#86) | 0.7 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#118) | -0.24 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#115) | 0.11 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#117) | 0.502 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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