Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ -167 JOES +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +10 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -2.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -2.2 (+7.8) | 143.7 (-21.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -2.9 (+7.1) | 143.7 (-21.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -2.7 (+7.3) | 144.4 (-22.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -2.5 (+7.5) | 144.1 (-22.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | JOES 97 – 90 DUQ |
| Jan 30, 2025 | JOES 76 – 72 DUQ |
| Jan 9, 2025 | DUQ 85 – 81 JOES |
| Jan 20, 2024 | JOES 71 – 69 DUQ |
| Feb 16, 2023 | DUQ 76 – 62 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#107) | 5.5 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#101) | 0.89 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#103) | 1.01 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#73) | 0.540 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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