Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +1 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | SLU -5.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -4.8 (-3.8) | 145.5 (-20.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -6.1 (-5.1) | 144.6 (-19.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -5.6 (-4.6) | 146.2 (-21.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -5.6 (-4.6) | 148.0 (-23.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | GMU 86 – 57 SLU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | GMU 76 – 74 SLU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GMU 79 – 67 SLU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | SLU 82 – 54 GMU |
| Feb 3, 2022 | SLU 92 – 90 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#93) | 3.2 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#84) | 0.53 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#87) | 0.59 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#52) | 0.556 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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