Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | SLU -225 GMU +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +28 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | SLU -2.4 (+25.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -4.0 (+24.0) | 138.9 (-2.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -3.2 (+24.8) | 140.4 (-4.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -3.1 (+24.9) | 140.8 (-4.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -3.0 (+25.0) | 139.4 (-3.4) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | GMU 86 – 57 SLU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | GMU 76 – 74 SLU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GMU 79 – 67 SLU |
| Jan 12, 2023 | SLU 63 – 62 GMU |
| Feb 3, 2022 | SLU 92 – 90 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#105) | 2.0 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#84) | 0.66 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#90) | 0.72 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#57) | 0.560 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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