Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | GMU +245 SLU -305 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +29 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SLU -9.7 (+38.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -5.6 (+34.6) | 142.5 (+0.5) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -6.9 (+35.9) | 143.6 (-0.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -7.5 (+36.5) | 143.1 (-0.1) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -6.1 (+35.1) | 144.2 (-1.2) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2025 | GMU 76 – 74 SLU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GMU 79 – 67 SLU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | SLU 82 – 54 GMU |
| Jan 12, 2023 | SLU 63 – 62 GMU |
| Feb 3, 2022 | SLU 92 – 90 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 17-3 | 19-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#105) | 17.4 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#85) | 2.63 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#94) | 3.29 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#64) | 0.616 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 60.7% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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