Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | SLU -125 GMU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +2 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -2.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -2.8 (+0.8) | 130.6 (+19.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -2.6 (+0.6) | 132.9 (+17.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -2.9 (+0.9) | 131.2 (+18.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -2.3 (+0.3) | 131.5 (+18.5) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | GMU 86 – 57 SLU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GMU 79 – 67 SLU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | SLU 82 – 54 GMU |
| Jan 12, 2023 | SLU 63 – 62 GMU |
| Feb 3, 2022 | SLU 92 – 90 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 18-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 64.0 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#120) | 8.2 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#125) | 1.81 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#117) | 2.79 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#103) | 0.591 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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