Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -120 SLU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +2 | 182 | Lost |
| Massey | SLU -1.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+45.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -0.2 (-2.2) | 138.2 (+43.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -0.6 (-1.4) | 135.0 (+47.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -0.5 (-2.5) | 137.8 (+44.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -0.5 (-2.5) | 138.9 (+43.1) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | GMU 86 – 57 SLU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | GMU 76 – 74 SLU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GMU 79 – 67 SLU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | SLU 82 – 54 GMU |
| Jan 12, 2023 | SLU 63 – 62 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 14-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#100) | 9.7 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#122) | 1.37 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#115) | 1.54 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#111) | 0.567 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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