Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | GMU -420 SLU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +12 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -14.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -13.3 (-1.3) | 143.5 (+2.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -10.7 (+1.3) | 143.6 (+2.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -12.3 (-0.3) | 144.5 (+1.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -13.2 (-1.2) | 145.0 (+1.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | GMU 86 – 57 SLU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | GMU 76 – 74 SLU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | SLU 82 – 54 GMU |
| Jan 12, 2023 | SLU 63 – 62 GMU |
| Feb 3, 2022 | SLU 92 – 90 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#82) | -3.8 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#30) | 0.06 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#45) | -0.19 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#45) | 0.510 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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