Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | SMU +160 TULN -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +9 | 185 | Lost |
| Massey | TULN -1.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (+32.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -0.4 (-8.6) | 151.9 (+33.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -1.8 (-7.2) | 151.9 (+33.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -2.1 (-6.9) | 152.5 (+32.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -2.2 (-6.8) | 155.6 (+29.4) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2024 | SMU 87 – 79 TULN |
| Feb 2, 2024 | SMU 80 – 76 TULN |
| Feb 2, 2023 | TULN 74 – 52 SMU |
| Mar 6, 2022 | SMU 74 – 68 TULN |
| Jan 15, 2022 | SMU 75 – 66 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-11 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#199) | 4.2 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#201) | 0.49 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#163) | 0.67 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#171) | 0.526 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 19.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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