Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -450 TULN +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -11.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -9.3 (-5.3) | 155.8 (+0.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -11.1 (-7.1) | 153.4 (+2.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -10.8 (-6.8) | 154.5 (+1.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -12.1 (-8.1) | 156.4 (-0.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2024 | SMU 87 – 79 TULN |
| Feb 2, 2023 | TULN 74 – 52 SMU |
| Jan 12, 2023 | TULN 97 – 88 SMU |
| Mar 6, 2022 | SMU 74 – 68 TULN |
| Jan 15, 2022 | SMU 75 – 66 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#37) | 4.2 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#101) | 0.51 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#81) | 0.84 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#107) | 0.516 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 34.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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