Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | TULN +100 SMU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +8 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -4.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -4.2 (-3.8) | 157.7 (+8.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -3.6 (-4.4) | 155.0 (+11.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -3.1 (-4.9) | 157.0 (+9.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -3.3 (-4.7) | 157.1 (+8.9) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 2, 2024 | SMU 80 – 76 TULN |
| Feb 2, 2023 | TULN 74 – 52 SMU |
| Jan 12, 2023 | TULN 97 – 88 SMU |
| Mar 6, 2022 | SMU 74 – 68 TULN |
| Jan 15, 2022 | SMU 75 – 66 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#110) | 11.6 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#134) | 1.25 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#124) | 1.84 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#154) | 0.555 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 19.3% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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