Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +9 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -0.1 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -0.9 (-8.1) | 147.9 (-6.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -0.3 (-9.3) | 147.2 (-6.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -0.3 (-9.3) | 148.2 (-7.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -0.6 (-9.6) | 148.8 (-7.8) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2024 | SMU 87 – 79 TULN |
| Feb 2, 2024 | SMU 80 – 76 TULN |
| Feb 2, 2023 | TULN 74 – 52 SMU |
| Jan 12, 2023 | TULN 97 – 88 SMU |
| Mar 6, 2022 | SMU 74 – 68 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-15 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-4 |
| Home | 9-4 | 17-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#129) | 6.2 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#149) | 1.17 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#172) | 1.53 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#145) | 0.552 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 19.9% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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