Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | TULN -450 SMU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +22 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -10.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-31.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -8.9 (+13.1) | 159.3 (-33.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -9.0 (+13.0) | 155.6 (-29.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -9.9 (+12.1) | 156.8 (-30.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -9.9 (+12.1) | 158.8 (-32.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2024 | SMU 87 – 79 TULN |
| Feb 2, 2024 | SMU 80 – 76 TULN |
| Jan 12, 2023 | TULN 97 – 88 SMU |
| Mar 6, 2022 | SMU 74 – 68 TULN |
| Jan 15, 2022 | SMU 75 – 66 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-4 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#91) | -1.4 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#103) | -0.49 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#96) | -0.24 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#105) | 0.497 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 19.0% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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