Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +16 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -15.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -12.3 (+3.7) | 142.3 (+17.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -13.0 (+3.0) | 142.4 (+17.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -12.2 (+3.8) | 142.3 (+17.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -12.5 (+3.5) | 142.7 (+17.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIA 76 – 54 BC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | MIA 74 – 68 BC |
| Jan 1, 2025 | BC 78 – 68 MIA |
| Mar 12, 2024 | BC 81 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BC 67 – 57 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#57) | -2.2 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#15) | -0.09 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#20) | 0.02 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#20) | 0.478 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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