Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +15 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -10.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -9.5 (+5.5) | 153.4 (+11.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -9.5 (+5.5) | 152.4 (+12.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -9.1 (+5.9) | 152.4 (+12.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -9.6 (+5.4) | 152.7 (+12.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | WAKE 69 – 68 FSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | FSU 72 – 70 WAKE |
| Jan 10, 2024 | FSU 87 – 82 WAKE |
| Feb 5, 2022 | WAKE 68 – 60 FSU |
| Jan 5, 2022 | WAKE 76 – 54 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 5-11 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#92) | -2.0 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#51) | -0.71 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#56) | -0.80 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#41) | 0.466 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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