Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +8 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | WAKE -0.8 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -2.4 (-10.4) | 146.6 (-18.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -0.6 (-7.4) | 149.0 (-21.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -0.3 (-7.7) | 149.7 (-21.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -0.1 (-8.1) | 148.6 (-20.6) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | WAKE 69 – 68 FSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | FSU 72 – 70 WAKE |
| Jan 10, 2024 | FSU 87 – 82 WAKE |
| Jan 12, 2023 | WAKE 90 – 75 FSU |
| Jan 5, 2022 | WAKE 76 – 54 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 18-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#79) | 11.0 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#74) | 1.91 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#100) | 2.32 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#76) | 0.567 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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