Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | WAKE -260 FSU +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | WAKE -3.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -4.6 (-6.6) | 141.0 (+1.0) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -4.0 (-6.0) | 137.5 (+4.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -4.3 (-6.3) | 137.5 (+4.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -4.4 (-6.4) | 139.7 (+2.3) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | WAKE 69 – 68 FSU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | FSU 87 – 82 WAKE |
| Jan 12, 2023 | WAKE 90 – 75 FSU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | WAKE 68 – 60 FSU |
| Jan 5, 2022 | WAKE 76 – 54 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#77) | 7.8 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#28) | 0.82 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#39) | 1.17 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#42) | 0.531 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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