Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
| Money | FSU +130 WAKE -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +5 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -2.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -1.3 (+6.3) | 150.9 (+18.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -1.6 (+6.6) | 151.1 (+17.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -0.7 (+5.7) | 148.7 (+20.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -0.5 (+5.5) | 150.1 (+18.9) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | WAKE 69 – 68 FSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | FSU 72 – 70 WAKE |
| Jan 12, 2023 | WAKE 90 – 75 FSU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | WAKE 68 – 60 FSU |
| Jan 5, 2022 | WAKE 76 – 54 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-7 | 17-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#102) | 10.9 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#123) | 2.01 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#116) | 2.66 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#88) | 0.606 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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