Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +22 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -5.1 (+16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -5.1 (+16.9) | 149.0 (-19.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -2.8 (+19.2) | 145.4 (-15.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -4.6 (+17.4) | 148.8 (-18.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -4.8 (+17.2) | 149.5 (-19.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | WAKE 69 – 68 FSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | FSU 72 – 70 WAKE |
| Jan 10, 2024 | FSU 87 – 82 WAKE |
| Jan 12, 2023 | WAKE 90 – 75 FSU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | WAKE 68 – 60 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 18-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#50) | 8.3 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#47) | 0.87 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#42) | 1.33 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#82) | 0.566 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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