Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -102 WAKE -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +1 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | WAKE -3.6 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.7 (-29.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -3.1 (+2.1) | 158.2 (-21.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -1.8 (+0.8) | 156.9 (-19.9) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -3.0 (+2.0) | 155.5 (-18.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -2.7 (+1.7) | 156.0 (-19.0) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2025 | FSU 72 – 70 WAKE |
| Jan 10, 2024 | FSU 87 – 82 WAKE |
| Jan 12, 2023 | WAKE 90 – 75 FSU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | WAKE 68 – 60 FSU |
| Jan 5, 2022 | WAKE 76 – 54 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#115) | 10.7 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#175) | 1.49 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#165) | 1.96 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#179) | 0.566 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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