With fingernails that shine like justice, and a voice that is dark like tinted glass. "Short Skirt Long Jacket" - Cake
Missouri Valley Conference · CEFCU Arena · January 12, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MOST -3.5 Home covered
O/U 128.5 Over
Money ILST +163 / MOST -163
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILST win
Actual ILST +10 142 Won
Massey MOST -4.2 (+14.2)
Massey Totals 124.7 (+17.3)
Bradley-Terry 43%
Weighted B-T 35%
Baseline ML MOST -3.9 (+13.9) 132.0 (+10.0) 30%
Baseline Plus ML MOST -4.2 (+14.2) 129.3 (+12.7) 31%
Efficiency Plus ML MOST -4.0 (+14.0) 128.7 (+13.3) 32%
Baseline Tuned ML MOST -3.7 (+13.7) 130.3 (+11.7) 33%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 6, 2025 ILST 7054 MOST
Feb 23, 2025 ILST 7068 MOST
Jan 18, 2025 ILST 7468 MOST
Feb 29, 2024 ILST 7574 MOST
Jan 20, 2024 ILST 6960 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILST MOST
Overall 11-21 17-15
Conference 6-14 12-8
Home 8-7 10-4
Away 3-9 5-8
Neutral 0-5 2-3
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 66.5 65.0
Avg Pts Against 70.5 63.7
Massey -4.7 (#250) 3.6 (#113)
Bradley-Terry -0.80 (#257) 0.21 (#157)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.08 (#262) 0.38 (#146)
RPI 0.448 (#270) 0.520 (#138)
Shooting & Four Factors ILST MOST
FG% 42.8% 43.8%
3PT% 33.5% 33.5%
REB / G 33.9 34.0
OREB / G 9.3 10.5
AST / TO 0.76 0.95
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.6% 51.0%
TOV% 22.1% 19.1%
ORB% 29.6% 30.9%
FT Rate 24.7% 15.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.6% 49.7%
Opp TOV% 17.0% 20.1%
DRB% 73.3% 72.9%
Opp FT Rate 24.2% 19.9%

Game Analysis

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