Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | ILST +163 MOST -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -4.2 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -4.0 (+14.0) | 128.7 (+13.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -3.7 (+13.7) | 130.3 (+11.7) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -3.9 (+13.9) | 132.0 (+10.0) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -4.2 (+14.2) | 129.3 (+12.7) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2025 | ILST 70 – 54 MOST |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ILST 70 – 68 MOST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MOST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ILST 75 – 74 MOST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ILST 69 – 60 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 63.7 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#250) | 3.6 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#257) | 0.21 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#262) | 0.38 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#270) | 0.520 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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