Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -250 ILST +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +9 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -9.2 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -7.7 (-16.7) | 133.3 (-4.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -6.0 (-15.0) | 131.5 (-2.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -6.2 (-15.2) | 132.1 (-3.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -6.1 (-15.1) | 132.2 (-3.2) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2025 | ILST 70 – 54 MOST |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ILST 70 – 68 MOST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MOST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ILST 75 – 74 MOST |
| Jan 12, 2023 | ILST 76 – 66 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#150) | -4.6 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#156) | -0.67 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#147) | -0.80 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#157) | 0.453 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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