Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
Missouri Valley Conference · Great Southern Bank Arena · February 23, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ILST -2.5 Home covered
O/U 135.5 Over
Money MOST +130 / ILST -150
Model Predictions
Spread Total MOST win
Actual ILST +2 138 Lost
Massey ILST -2.4 (+0.4)
Massey Totals 140.3 (-2.3)
Bradley-Terry 27%
Weighted B-T 31%
Baseline ML ILST -2.2 (+0.2) 140.3 (-2.3) 41%
Baseline Plus ML ILST -1.8 (-0.2) 140.0 (-2.0) 37%
Efficiency Plus ML ILST -1.4 (-0.6) 137.1 (+0.9) 43%
Baseline Tuned ML ILST -1.7 (-0.3) 138.9 (-0.9) 39%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 6, 2025 ILST 7054 MOST
Jan 18, 2025 ILST 7468 MOST
Feb 29, 2024 ILST 7574 MOST
Jan 20, 2024 ILST 6960 MOST
Jan 12, 2023 ILST 7666 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MOST ILST
Overall 9-23 22-14
Conference 2-18 10-10
Home 7-8 12-4
Away 1-12 5-7
Neutral 1-3 5-3
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L6 W3
Avg Pts For 67.5 74.9
Avg Pts Against 71.9 72.4
Massey -3.4 (#223) 2.1 (#126)
Bradley-Terry -1.06 (#272) 0.51 (#127)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.92 (#240) 0.52 (#132)
RPI 0.440 (#296) 0.516 (#150)
Shooting & Four Factors MOST ILST
FG% 44.9% 48.1%
3PT% 35.8% 38.4%
REB / G 32.7 31.8
OREB / G 10.5 7.6
AST / TO 0.89 1.36
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.4% 57.1%
TOV% 20.6% 15.7%
ORB% 32.1% 24.8%
FT Rate 22.3% 24.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.2% 54.6%
Opp TOV% 19.3% 16.2%
DRB% 71.5% 75.0%
Opp FT Rate 28.8% 23.1%

Game Analysis

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