Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | MOST +130 ILST -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +2 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | ILST -2.4 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -1.4 (-0.6) | 137.1 (+0.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -1.7 (-0.3) | 138.9 (-0.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -2.2 (+0.2) | 140.3 (-2.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -1.8 (-0.2) | 140.0 (-2.0) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2025 | ILST 70 – 54 MOST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MOST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ILST 75 – 74 MOST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ILST 69 – 60 MOST |
| Jan 12, 2023 | ILST 76 – 66 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-8 | 12-4 |
| Away | 1-12 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#223) | 2.1 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#272) | 0.51 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#240) | 0.52 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#296) | 0.516 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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