Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ILST -200 MOST +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -2.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -0.1 (+0.9) | 134.5 (+14.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -2.2 (-1.2) | 134.9 (+14.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -2.3 (-1.3) | 136.2 (+12.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -2.2 (-1.2) | 137.2 (+11.8) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2025 | ILST 70 – 54 MOST |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ILST 70 – 68 MOST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MOST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ILST 69 – 60 MOST |
| Jan 12, 2023 | ILST 76 – 66 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#171) | 0.4 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#162) | 0.31 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#160) | 0.32 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#173) | 0.503 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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