That's where you'll find me, along with the lovers muggers and thieves - but they're cool people. "Dirty Water" - The Standells
Missouri Valley Conference · CEFCU Arena · February 29, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ILST -4.5 Away covered
O/U 135.5 Over
Money ILST -200 / MOST +155
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILST win
Actual ILST +1 149 Won
Massey ILST -2.4 (-1.4)
Massey Totals 132.2 (+16.8)
Bradley-Terry 59%
Weighted B-T 63%
Baseline ML ILST -2.3 (-1.3) 136.2 (+12.8) 67%
Baseline Plus ML ILST -2.2 (-1.2) 137.2 (+11.8) 67%
Efficiency Plus ML ILST -0.1 (+0.9) 134.5 (+14.5) 59%
Baseline Tuned ML ILST -2.2 (-1.2) 134.9 (+14.1) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 6, 2025 ILST 7054 MOST
Feb 23, 2025 ILST 7068 MOST
Jan 18, 2025 ILST 7468 MOST
Jan 20, 2024 ILST 6960 MOST
Jan 12, 2023 ILST 7666 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILST MOST
Overall 15-17 17-16
Conference 9-11 8-12
Home 10-6 9-5
Away 4-8 4-10
Neutral 1-3 4-1
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 66.2 71.2
Avg Pts Against 68.0 71.3
Massey -0.6 (#171) 0.4 (#159)
Bradley-Terry 0.06 (#162) 0.31 (#146)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.14 (#160) 0.32 (#151)
RPI 0.501 (#173) 0.503 (#166)
Shooting & Four Factors ILST MOST
FG% 41.9% 44.1%
3PT% 28.5% 31.9%
REB / G 35.0 38.8
OREB / G 10.2 9.9
AST / TO 1.03 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.2% 50.1%
TOV% 17.4% 17.2%
ORB% 29.3% 28.3%
FT Rate 26.8% 22.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.8% 48.6%
Opp TOV% 16.7% 13.0%
DRB% 74.9% 75.3%
Opp FT Rate 20.9% 17.9%

Game Analysis

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