Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -240 MOST +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +16 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -5.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -3.6 (+12.4) | 132.8 (-8.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -5.0 (+11.0) | 136.0 (-12.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -5.0 (+11.0) | 136.6 (-12.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -4.5 (+11.5) | 135.3 (-11.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2025 | ILST 70 – 68 MOST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MOST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ILST 75 – 74 MOST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ILST 69 – 60 MOST |
| Jan 12, 2023 | ILST 76 – 66 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 2-18 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-7 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W3 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#132) | -3.5 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#126) | -1.18 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#135) | -1.06 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#135) | 0.431 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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