He is handing the money / He is serving the food / He knows about your party / He is calling you dude. "Comfort Eagle" - Cake
Illinois State Redbirds
70 54
FINAL Neutral Conference MVC
Missouri State Bears
Missouri Valley Conference · Enterprise Center (Neutral) · March 6, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ILST -5.5 Home covered
O/U 133.5 Under
Money ILST -240 / MOST +200
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILST win
Actual ILST +16 124 Won
Massey ILST -5.3 (+10.7)
Massey Totals 139.1 (-15.1)
Bradley-Terry 84%
Weighted B-T 82%
Baseline ML ILST -5.4 (+10.6) 136.6 (-12.6) 72%
Baseline Plus ML ILST -4.8 (+11.2) 134.5 (-10.5) 71%
Efficiency Plus ML ILST -4.9 (+11.1) 131.8 (-7.8) 68%
Baseline Tuned ML ILST -5.2 (+10.8) 135.8 (-11.8) 74%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 23, 2025 ILST 7068 MOST
Jan 18, 2025 ILST 7468 MOST
Feb 29, 2024 ILST 7574 MOST
Jan 20, 2024 ILST 6960 MOST
Jan 12, 2023 ILST 7666 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILST MOST
Overall 22-14 9-23
Conference 10-10 2-18
Home 12-4 7-8
Away 5-7 1-12
Neutral 5-3 1-3
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak W3 L6
Avg Pts For 74.9 67.5
Avg Pts Against 72.4 71.9
Massey 1.8 (#132) -3.5 (#222)
Bradley-Terry 0.51 (#126) -1.18 (#274)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.46 (#135) -1.06 (#249)
RPI 0.522 (#135) 0.431 (#312)
Shooting & Four Factors ILST MOST
FG% 47.6% 44.6%
3PT% 37.4% 36.3%
REB / G 31.6 32.4
OREB / G 7.7 10.5
AST / TO 1.35 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.5% 51.4%
TOV% 15.8% 20.7%
ORB% 24.7% 32.0%
FT Rate 23.7% 22.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.5% 54.4%
Opp TOV% 16.6% 19.1%
DRB% 75.3% 71.4%
Opp FT Rate 23.9% 27.7%

Game Analysis

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