Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Under |
| Money | ARST +140 TXST -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +3 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -3.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -3.2 (+0.2) | 126.4 (-7.4) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -2.6 (-0.4) | 123.4 (-4.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -3.1 (+0.1) | 122.7 (-3.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -2.7 (-0.3) | 125.5 (-6.5) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ARST 83 – 82 TXST |
| Dec 18, 2025 | ARST 89 – 70 TXST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ARST 85 – 74 TXST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ARST 80 – 65 TXST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ARST 79 – 72 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-8 | 4-10 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#307) | -0.8 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#288) | -0.16 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#298) | -0.24 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#321) | 0.469 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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