Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -400 ME +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +8 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -8.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -7.6 (+0.4) | 151.8 (+10.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -8.0 (+0.0) | 147.6 (+14.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -6.5 (+1.5) | 151.7 (+10.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -6.5 (+1.5) | 152.2 (+9.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UMBC 78 – 62 ME |
| Jan 8, 2026 | UMBC 69 – 62 ME |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ME 73 – 50 UMBC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ME 87 – 62 UMBC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ME 62 – 56 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#205) | -6.3 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#174) | -1.78 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#185) | -2.05 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#191) | 0.425 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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