Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -395 ME +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -10.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -8.5 (-1.5) | 131.4 (-0.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -7.4 (-0.4) | 130.2 (+0.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -7.8 (-0.8) | 133.4 (-2.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -8.3 (-1.3) | 130.5 (+0.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UMBC 78 – 62 ME |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ME 73 – 50 UMBC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ME 87 – 62 UMBC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ME 62 – 56 UMBC |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UMBC 70 – 65 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 6-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 4-8 |
| Away | 9-6 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 61.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#259) | -13.3 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#263) | -3.30 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#260) | -4.03 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#258) | 0.376 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 61.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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