Betting Lines
| Spread | ME -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC +163 ME -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ME -3.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -3.1 (+8.1) | 146.1 (-11.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -2.0 (+7.0) | 145.1 (-10.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -3.7 (+8.7) | 147.2 (-12.2) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ME -3.1 (+8.1) | 146.1 (-11.1) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UMBC 78 – 62 ME |
| Jan 8, 2026 | UMBC 69 – 62 ME |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ME 73 – 50 UMBC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ME 87 – 62 UMBC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ME 62 – 56 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 6-9 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-12 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#315) | -2.8 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.74 (#348) | -0.61 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.33 (#346) | -0.68 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.361 (#356) | 0.467 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 20.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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