Betting Lines
| Spread | ME -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | ME -200 UMBC +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +6 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | ME -7.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-34.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -5.2 (+0.8) | 149.2 (-31.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -5.0 (+1.0) | 147.0 (-29.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -5.8 (+0.2) | 145.1 (-27.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ME -5.4 (+0.6) | 144.7 (-26.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UMBC 78 – 62 ME |
| Jan 8, 2026 | UMBC 69 – 62 ME |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ME 73 – 50 UMBC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ME 87 – 62 UMBC |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UMBC 70 – 65 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-10 |
| Home | 8-4 | 6-9 |
| Away | 5-13 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#218) | -7.4 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#251) | -1.79 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#227) | -1.99 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#241) | 0.400 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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